Analysis of the recent market trend of monoammonium phosphate

- Mar 24, 2018-

The market trend of monoammonium phosphate after the Spring Festival was poor, and it was one of the worst fertilizers. The price oscillated and fell. At present, the factory price of monoammonium phosphate is mostly 2100-2250 yuan (ton price, the same below), compared with the previous week, the price of 200 yuan, some market prices have fallen to the level of last year in November. Due to the poor take of goods, the pressure of inventory is high, and the price is still facing the risk of further decline. Some companies are prepared to limit the production price.

The poor market trend of monoammonium phosphate is caused by insufficient demand. In China, monoammonium phosphate is mainly used for the production of compound fertilizer, which is greatly affected by the purchase status of the compound fertilizer enterprises. Zhongyu Information Analyst stated that according to previous years' experience, the compound fertilizer market is bound to take a peak due to agricultural production in March, and the atmosphere this year has always been tepid. Although according to the statistics, the amount of fertilizer prepared in the market was lower than the same period of previous years, but dealers considered the risk of preparing fertilizer, and the overall investment enthusiasm was insufficient. In addition, the agricultural products have had poor returns in recent years, and the grassroots have resisted high-priced fertilizers and suppressed the confidence of the market in using fertilizers. It is understood that the operating rate of compound fertilizer companies is only slightly higher than 50%, which is a low operating rate in the same period of history, and the demand for monoammonium phosphate is limited.

In addition, the fall in raw material prices also led to a drop in the price of monoammonium phosphate. The monoammonium phosphate production raw materials mainly have three blocks: phosphate rock, sulfur, liquid ammonia. Sulfur price support was insufficient. The prices of particulate sulfur in the Yangtze River and Fangchenggang fell back to 1,070 yuan, and the price of Puguang Sulphur in Wanzhou fell by 30 yuan to 1,120 yuan. With the post-holiday nitrogen company's operating rate rising sharply, the supply of liquid ammonia increased and the price appeared 300-. About 500 yuan; phosphate rock supply is still relatively tight, but the price to stabilize the main, later with the mine gradually resume production, ore prices may decline. Some analysts say that the full cost of 55% powdered monoammonium phosphate is around RMB 2000-2050. As the cost decreases, the support for monoammonium phosphate prices has also weakened.

In the face of the sluggish domestic market, some companies have turned their attention to more exports. In 2017, the export of monoammonium phosphate in China was good, with a total export volume of 7.712 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.8%. In January this year, it exported 70,000 tons, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year. At present, the price of monoammonium phosphate is adjusted within a narrow range. The demand for monoammonium phosphate in Brazil has increased, but the volume has not yet improved significantly. Brazil's 63% grain-ammonium ammonium phosphate (CIF) price is between US$430-435/tonne. It is worth noting whether there will be more increase in the output of monoammonium phosphate in the future market.